
| 1999 Proceedings THE EFFECTS OF FLOOD DYNAMICS ON CHEMICAL FATE AND TRANSPORT: IMPLICATIONS FOR AGRICULTURAL MANAGEMENT PRACTICES Timothy R. Ellsworth, Stefan Mayer, Charles W. Boast, and Miguel Restrepo University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Abstract A primary objective of this research is the development of a network model to characterize and predict water flow and chemical transport in soil. In particular, we are focusing on the potential for upscaling flow and transport processes. We have developed a computer model that simulates flow and transport in a three-dimensional heterogeneous flow network. This approach employs an efficient solution method, which is based on the assumption that iso-pressure surfaces are known a priori (for instance, steady-state, gravity-driven vertical flows in unsaturated soil with horizontal iso-pressure surfaces). The flow and transport heterogeneity in this system is thus assumed to be a result of conductance heterogeneity. The flow and transport processes have been simulated for two spatial network conductance distributions: (1) an Uncorrelated Random Network conductance distribution (URN), and (2) an Anisotropic, Correlated Random Network conductance distribution (ACRN). These preliminary simulations of flow and transport employed a network consisting of 20 x 20 x 40 grid nodes. Particle tracking was used to characterize solute transport in the network. As expected, simulated breakthrough curves (BTC) for the URN rapidly converged to be consistent with a convective-dispersive (CDE) process. A 2-3 times greater vertical, relative to horizontal, correlation in conductance was present in the ACRN simulation. This resulted in a faster mean travel time, and also considerably greater tailing of solute relative to the URN transport simulations. Both distributions assumed a lognormal conductance distribution. Future efforts will evaluate the influence of conductance histograms and variograms on transport processes, and will vary the size of the networks. In addition to model development, methods are being developed and evaluated for estimating the uncertainty in experimental solute concentration data. The aim is to provide a methodology for quantifying spatial and temporal uncertainty in three-dimensional solute plumes in unsaturated soil given periodic spatial sampling of the plume at arbitrary measurement supports. Methods include a sampling with replacement bootstrap/jacknife approach as well as a variety of geostatistical estimation/simulation approaches. These include trend removal combined with indicator and gaussian sequential simulation using residuals, simple kriging with locally varying means to estimate local conditional means and variances for sequential gaussian simulation on normal score transformed residuals, and simulation within "strata." |