The Midwestern flood of 1993 provided an excellent example of the need for a systems-based approach to land management and natural resource policy-making. Events such as this prompt a reconsideration of current land management goals and strategies. Often, biological components of the system are compromised while managing for socially and economically defined goals. However, the biological dimensions are not as flexible and compromising as management practices have assumed. Manipulating the environment to benefit socially and economically defined goals is not only detrimental to the natural system, but also socially and economically detrimental over the long term. For a more sustainable and long-term balance of the system, the economic and social components need to adapt and conform to the natural limitations of the land. An ecosystem-based approach to the Mississippi River floodplains would prescribe goals that are realistic given the social context within which the system functions, and integrate biological, economic, and social considerations in managing to achieve those goals.

A conceptual framework has been developed to serve as the basis for a dynamic decision-making model. The framework describes social and biological dimensions integrating economic constraints, landowner values, and indices of biological health in floodplains and Midwestern watersheds. These dimensions have been incorporated into a dynamic decision-making model illustrating their interrelationships and management impacts. The model accommodates social values typical of a Midwestern watershed within the constraints of ecosystem-based goals to preserve the health and integrity of the natural system. The decision-making framework and model will provide a systems-based context through which to make improved policy and land management decisions for floodplains.

A decision-making model was created that illustrates the trade-offs associated with implementing an ecosystem-based framework for agricultural watersheds that include Mississippi River floodplains. Given the broad scope of the conceptual framework, gaps in the data, missing data, differences in scales, and the problematic nature of applying a broad management plan to diverse land and soil types, the model was developed as a conceptual decision-making tool. Data from the current literature were aggregated to quantify impacts of the management prescription. The model incorporates a limited temporal scale and is not spatially explicit at this time. The current model is to serve as a starting point and assumptions will be refined over time.

The model was developed in Stella, a highly adaptable development tool ideal for modeling biological and ecological processes. Stella allows the use of both quantitative and qualitative information as inputs. The application is also cost-effective while providing an easy-to-use point- and-click graphical user interface. Therefore, it eliminates the need to understand programming languages for model development. Finally, it is compatible with other development applications, including spatial modeling tools. Future development of the project may include links to a geographic information system (GIS) in order to create a spatially explicit model.